KoSaC
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« Reply #45 on: July 03, 2008, 18:55:02 PM » |
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gabzpiano
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« Reply #46 on: July 03, 2008, 21:03:10 PM » |
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thats such bullshit, im sorry, its true, i completely understand what ur saying, but the way to change that, is to look at the big picture beforehand. for example the chances of me losing a coin flop four times in a row is 1/16 which means if i lost 3 times and im calculating the odds for the next time individually then yes its stays 50% but if u look at the big picture u can say if i lose again it will complete a very unlikely picture, making the odds of that time change.
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gabzpiano
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« Reply #47 on: July 03, 2008, 21:09:04 PM » |
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oh and tiger, i reconsidered everything and i know longer think ur right, cuz if i lost 4 times in a row then truthfully, i should win the next four times. well it doesnt really work like that, but this is what u should do, keep track of how much ur down. okay, u lost four times in a row, now im down 179, so continue betting on the highest until ur up.
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tiger
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« Reply #48 on: July 03, 2008, 22:25:24 PM » |
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There are bigger chances to lose then to win.  So i wont play dice game in IO. Who thinks otherwise, good luck to him. |
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tiger
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Fingolfin
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« Reply #49 on: July 04, 2008, 04:47:13 AM » |
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oh and tiger, i reconsidered everything and i know longer think ur right, cuz if i lost 4 times in a row then truthfully, i should win the next four times. well it doesnt really work like that, but this is what u should do, keep track of how much ur down. okay, u lost four times in a row, now im down 179, so continue betting on the highest until ur up.
rofl.  Look mate. say chance of winning or losing is 1/2. the probability of you losing 4 times in a row is 1/16. Yes very unlikely.(But you realize i hope that you calculated that number assuming that one loss or win has nothing to do with another  ) You are getting confused with the chances of losing 4 times being unlikely, and the chances of losing the fourth time after losing thrice already!! You see something you considered unlikely has taken place already( losing 3 times) .  So though losing 4 times is unlikely, it no longer is after you've lost thrice aready. If it's still confusing, just trust me on this one |
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gabzpiano
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« Reply #50 on: July 04, 2008, 07:38:54 AM » |
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look, dont u agree the more times u do something, the more the odds matter. for example, ive never done the lotterry before, but if i did and the first time i won, that was just one time, i cant judge the odds just by one time, but on the other hand if i did it every week i'd c my real chances are really small. so if im playing tossing a coin (50%) and i lost money over it, the next time i would double my bet, becuz, the more times i do something, the more i can see the real odds, which means if i lost once and i know the odds are 50% then i know that now "chance" should show me my real odds by letting me win this time. basically, if u ever go to a casino, go tothe roullete table and bet on either black or red(point being u'll have 50%) start with the minimum, everytime u lose just double ur bet, that way u cover ur losses
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Fingolfin
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« Reply #51 on: July 04, 2008, 14:54:15 PM » |
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When anger breaks through, I'll leave mercy behind
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bilko1
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« Reply #52 on: July 04, 2008, 16:27:38 PM » |
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You people are sooooooo of  ... and Krum: how can somebody have negative population??? |
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gabzpiano
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« Reply #53 on: July 04, 2008, 16:30:35 PM » |
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ha, i've never done this before, but i'm when the average person goes to a casino he is not thinking that much about it, they just think its about luck. and something really interesting is that my math teacher (the one that tought me this) went to a casino and he put that theory to the test, he made 2500$ in the first night. and now he does it every chance he gets. the only bad thing about it is that there casinos that are very aware of this method, so when they someone doubling his bet everytime he loses, they could kick him out anytime. i think its called the Martingale system. one more time if u still dont understand, the point is, all u need to do is win one of all those times. so each time ur odds improve 1/2 + 1/4 +1/8 + 1/16 + 1/32... and so on. ALL U NEED IS TO WIN ONCE EACH TIME, if u still dont get it look this site: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Martingale_(betting_system) it says that alot of people that used it lost there money, but my teacher is still encouraging me to try it. |
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gabzpiano
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« Reply #54 on: July 04, 2008, 16:32:40 PM » |
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Bilko, the title is "is that possible" i think this is very adequate for a topic about odds and "chance".
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bilko1
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« Reply #55 on: July 04, 2008, 16:36:50 PM » |
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« Last Edit: July 04, 2008, 16:47:24 PM by bilko1 »
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Fingolfin
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« Reply #56 on: July 04, 2008, 19:40:11 PM » |
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Dont be in a hurry to label someone who has done what you havent as a cheater  And what's wrong in being off topic The martingale system works, if you assume you have an infinite supply of resources, or that you stop playing when you are winning, or alternatively restart the game with your present amount of gold as starting point, fair enough. BUT my point was that losing 4 times in a row doesnt make winning the 5th time more probable . geez that must be the hundredth time i'm saying it!!  Btw where is this guy in the rankings at the moment? it'll be interesting to follow his course  |
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gabzpiano
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« Reply #57 on: July 04, 2008, 20:15:40 PM » |
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ur right about that, i didnt mean to argue about that point, its true. now about the dice, if i lost 4 of times in a row, (lets assume i have an infinite supply of resources) statsically, eventually i should win more afterwards. if u lost while betting on the lowest 6 times in a row, wouldnt u then start betting on the highest?  so if im doing the technique i said in the begginning and i lost 4 times in row, that was a loss of 179, right? so now i just continue betting on 99, i should eventually be up, then start over. just try it, do the regular technique and then when u lose four times in a row, just continue betting on the highest til ur up, eventually u have to be up. (dont forget to keep track) btw were u talking about me when u said lets see where he is in the ranking?? |
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Fingolfin
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« Reply #58 on: July 04, 2008, 20:20:39 PM » |
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No, i'm talking about the guy who caused this thread to be opened ... or is that you?  |
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tiger
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« Reply #59 on: July 05, 2008, 00:31:05 AM » |
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Guy isnt in rating anymore. He is out of my 2x. And he have large minus in all provinces so he didnt do it with dice game. Because you need 100 gold to start dice game. Adn i had to many  to discuss dice game options. If somebody wish that, post here and i will reply later.  |
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tiger
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