Many of You probably want to know how spying works. Me to - up till friday I was lost as many of You. So I am going to give You few very good examples how it works. Remmember that when someone fails in spying You - he loses 20% of his spies but if he succeds - we don't get any info about this.
Similiar - when we counter - we risk losing 20% of our spies if we fail but if we succed - the atacker spies return home in full numbers. (so we just repel them).
Summary of this topic:
1. When we have 1k spyies in defence and same level of borders as spying level of atacker:
a) 200 enemy spies have 45-60% chance of succesfull spying us.
b) 500 enemy spies have 75-90% chance of succesfull spying us.
c) 1000 enemy spies have 85-100% chance of succesfull spying us.
d) 2000 enemy spies have 90-100% chance of succesfull spying us.
e) 5000 enemy spies have 95-100% chance of succesfull spying us.
2. Similiar situation (1k spyies in defence) but when we have 1 lvl less borders then spying lvl of atacker:
a) 200 enemy spies have 70-85% chance of succesfull spying us
b) 500 enemy spies have 85-100% chance of succesfull spying us
c) 1000 enemy spies have 90-100% chance of succesfull spying us
d) 2000 enemy spies have 95-100% chance of succesfull spying us
e) 5000 enemy spies have 95-100% chance of succesfull spying us
How counter spying works?
3. When we have 1k spyies in defence and same level of borders as spying level of atacker:
a) chance of catching enemy 200 spies is 100%
b) chance of catching enemy 500 spies is 100%
c) chance of catching enemy 1000 spies is 75-90%
d) chance of catching enemy 2000 spies is 35-50%
e) chance of catching enemy 5000 spies is 10-25%
4. Similiar but now we have 1 lvl less borders then enemy:
a) chance of catching enemy 200 spies is 100%
b) chance of catching enemy 500 spies is 75-90%
c) chance of catching enemy 1000 spies is 35-50%
d) chance of catching enemy 2000 spies is 15-30%
e) chance of catching enemy 5000 spies is 0-10%
Warning: In each case the value is precise. I give estimations to prevent working out exact rule since I was asked not to give away the formula - so therefore on above estimations You can't work out proper stochastic model. The value in each case can be margin or can be around middle. So You can't be sure which is which. This is only to give You generall idea how it works and what is better to do - build spies or invest in next lvl of borders/spying.I hope it helps all of You as much as it helps me.